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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still