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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd